The title of World Champions seems to have a curse attached to it. Starting in 2010, 2006’s champions Italy weren’t able to reach the latter stages of the competition and were eliminated in the group stage. 2010’s champions Spain endured the same scenario in 2014 and they were followed by 2014’s Champions Germany in 2018.
This trend started further back, with France in 2002, where they followed their 1998 World Cup win with the embarrassment of crashing out of the competition at the group stage.
The opportunity to make amends is theirs though. Les Bleus are travelling to Qatar as defending world champions and arguably as the strongest favourites. With no losses to the squad that cruised to victory in Russia four years ago, they seem able to keep producing quality prospects to form their ranks and fill the gaps of any possible setbacks due to player form.
The development of French Football Federation’s endless resource supply to Didier Deschamps’ asymmetric 4-4-2 is more than enough to make Les Bleus the strongest favourites. With the return of some familiar faces and considering the season that France’s superstars have been through, it’s hard to come up with a superior candidate to disrupt their championship defence.
In this article series, I will look at potential favourites’ squad structures, potential line-ups and their possible route to a World Cup final.
The defending champions were drawn in Group D, with Australia, Tunisia and Euro 2020 semi-finalists Denmark.
I examined France’s last Nations League match-up with Croatia.
Against the compact structure of their 2018 final opponents Zlatko Dalic’s Croatia, Deschamps’ changes were only to his personnel. Being a Nations League game, the likes of Mike Maignan, Jules Koundé, Ibrahima Konaté, Lucas Digne, Matteo Guendouzi, Boubacar Kamara and Christopher Nkunku were rotated in, instead of Hugo Lloris, Benjamin Pavard, Raphaël Varane, Lucas Hernandez, N’Golo Kanté, Paul Pogba and Antoine Griezmann, who faced Croatia in that World Cup final.
Four years having passed since that game, Samuel Umtiti and Moussa Sissoko have also lost their place in Deschamps’ preferred eleven, with Adrien Rabiot and Presnel Kimpembe being the favoured alternatives.
There’s another player that lost his place to a sort of “newcomer” and that’s Olivier Giroud. Being the main central forward of a phoenix-esque Scudetto-winning side at AC Milan, the 35 year-old might have thought that he was wronged by Deschamps.
Few replacements could shut out the noise. One was Karim Benzema.
Drama was always an element of the French national team. After losing the 2006 final to Italy, their caricaturish 2010 campaign ended at the group stage. They lost to the hosts South Africa and Mexico and managed only a draw against a Uruguay team reduced to ten men. Fuelled by poor performances, the tension reached its boiling point, resulting in Nicolas Anelka walking out of training and Patrice Evra’s “altercation” with a fitness coach.
Benzema was a scapegoat in the efforts of cleaning French football of this toxicity and after his sex tape scandal, blackmailing Mathieu Valbuena, he didn’t feature in French national team for six years. He was forced to watch while his country lost out to Portugal in the extra time of Euro 2016 final, and sit by as France became champions two years later.
These distracting environments might and most likely would be a factor in decreasing the chances of a team succeeding in any set of circumstances. But an unlikely part of this equation is very much a decent possibility for France.
The situation with Benzema could also suit his teammates well. After one of French football’s most impressive seasons individually, Benzema is running a perhaps lonely race for the prestigious Ballon d’Or. His willingness to adapt to different circumstances brought him his career’s best season so far, alongside a fifth Champions League trophy.
International football is no different. Having an uncannily similar skill-set to Giroud, Benzema is able to fill his spot with almost no effort. He’s on top form and will be surrounded with a very skilful group, which can also thrive with the centre forward’s ability to bring his teammates into play. Although these opportunities may well depend on how he recovers from an injury to his right leg.
Unfortunately for Deschamps, Benzema is not his only superstar player dealing with injuries.
They have already lost their talisman, Paul Pogba, to a meniscus injury. The centre of not only national duty drama, but his club career as well, Pogba has just completed a return to Italy that evoked huge excitement, however he was injured in pre-season, requiring an operation, ruining not only his dreams of defending the World Cup with his country, but also his so-called redemption season.
Their captain and star goalkeeper Hugo Lloris was withdrawn from their last Nations League run before the World Cup’s start with a thigh injury. The presence of Mike Maignan eased Deschamps from panicking, but Maignan also picked out an injury to his calf in their game against Austria. He’s expected to miss a month of football due to this knock and his fitness levels in time for the World Cup are in jeopardy, if he can return at all.
Their third-choice goalkeeper, Alphonse Areola, was named in the starting line-up against Denmark – a worthy test in the last fixtures before the World Cup – and, to say the least, the West Ham man failed to impress, losing 2-0 to last year’s Euro semi-finalists.
Nevertheless, if any team can offer reinforcements, it’s Les Bleus. Even without Hugo Lloris, Presnel Kimpembe, Lucas Hernandez, N’Golo Kanté and Kingsley Coman for the Nations League, Deschamps could call upon Alban Lafont, Benoit Badiashile, Youssef Fofana, Rafael Kolo Muani and Ousmane Dembele.
But before analysing the squad depth further, it is important to understand what Deschamps’ system demands from the players.
Didier Deschamps mainly opted to use two formations with France: 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. France are generally able to play broadly the same style regardless of shape.
#1: World Cup Winner: 4-4-2 / 4-3-3
How much can four years do? Well…
Plenty of the players that featured in the previous World Cup final, versus Croatia, do still play for France regularly. Five of them can be stated as favourites to feature in this World Cup: Hugo Lloris, Benjamin Pavard, Raphaël Varane, N’Golo Kanté, Antoine Griezmann and of course Kylian Mbappe.
As stated, Umtiti’s career went into free-fall ever since, Kimpembe’s the inverse, and the return of Benzema saw Giroud benched.
But with Pogba’s unavailability, Lucas Hernandez’ lack of playtime, and Blaise Matuidi’s career coming to its end, there are still three starting positions up for grabs: two in central midfield and one at left-back.
Lucas Hernandez is still in the running, albeit not so dominant as he once was. His place is under serious threat from his little brother Theo Hernandez and last year’s Champions League winner Ferland Mendy, offering a similar outlook but with different strengths.
In different states of the game against Croatia, Lucas Digne was expected to provide width and mainly contribute in the middle and final third. Plus, combining with Adrien Rabiot’s physical and positional play, the left back was expected to provide cover for France’s forwards.
Christopher Nkunku replaced Antoine Griezmann as the hard-working, roaming forward, while Benzema replaced Giroud as the connector.
With Deschamps’ strategy consisting of getting the ball to this trio, tilting the play to the left side of the pitch to create an skilful overload with decent cover behind it; proves to be very important.
Although on that day France lost the game 1-0 to a very early Luka Modric penalty, their pressure was only interrupted by the few chances Croatia were able to create during transition scenarios.
In September 25th’s Nations League game against Denmark, they suffered a 2-0 defeat. They fell behind after Denmark managed to play through their high line of defence and conceded another from a corner.
Similarly to the Croatia game, their front three were hesitant to take their chances, but the lack of ability to progress the ball from the backline were made obvious by Denmark’s high and aggressive press.
There’s no man that can sweep up behind his attackers like N’Golo Kanté, but Paul Pogba is not an easy man to replace with the ball at his feet. In both games, France struggled to feed their trio of forwards. Neither a central three of Boubacar Kamara, Matteo Guendouzi and Adrien Rabiot, or the dynamic duo of Real Madrid, Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni, provided enough progressive actions, and they struggled to provide adequate cover too.
#2: 3-5-2
Deschamps’ strategy stayed the same but his preferred shape changed.
Naming five defenders in the starting line-up seemed like a good way to both create width and provide cover.
Pavard and Mendy were part of the five-man backline but also stopped Denmark’s full-backs from freely participating in the build-up play.
They conceded one when Pavard’s frustration led him to aggressively press after losing out. Denmark were able to exploit the right flank of France in transition, with Kasper Dolberg’s foot on the end of Mikkel Damsgaard’s cross.
After conceding another from a corner, France wanted to play on the front foot even more, but in the end the duo of Tchouameni and Camavinga failed to progress the ball sufficiently, much like the wing-backs and centre backs.
Progression
Theo Hernandez leads the other full-back candidates in this aspect, averaging three shot creations and 12 progressions per game for AC Milan in Serie A. He also completed almost 1.5 dribbles per game and displays a skilful left foot that can help France to play out from the back, or provide width in attack, crossing or cut the ball back into the box.
Cover
Theo Hernandez applies 12 pressures per game, almost seven in the middle and final third of the pitch. Only his older brother comes close with 11.5 pressures per game, but Lucas’ come much deeper, as almost 10 of his pressures come in the defensive third. He completed almost 10.5 recoveries, with his interceptions and tackles totalling 4.5.
He also manages almost 8.5 passes into the final third, compensating for lack of dribbling skills.
Ferland Mendy fails to impress in both departments statistically, but having the reigning Champions League winner as their third best statistically proves what strength in depth France has.
The 4-4-2 suits Lucas Hernandez, while the left wing-back role of the 3-5-2 is more suited for Theo. Thankfully France have them both.
Construction of the Midfield
France has a very wide range of skilled midfielders. Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni are with Real Madrid playing week in, week out, Adrien Rabiot is one of the few consistent outlets of a struggling Juventus, while newcomers like Matteo Guendouzi, Youssouf Fofana and Boubacar Kamara are also very bright prospects. But as stated, Pogba is not an easy player to replace.
All are physically capable, athletic players and their natural instincts are to control the tempo with their positional play. But with N’Golo Kanté around, these players lack something that can cause France a set of problems.
But with Theo Hernandez present, a midfield duo can be produced that can delegate their creative duties to colleagues, while they provide cover. Combined with the skill-sets of Karim Benzema and Antoine Griezmann, France may be able to build through presses and create a decent structure that will allow them to play to their strengths.
Option #1: Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot was the first that Deschamps’ looked to when Blaise Matuidi and Moussa Sissoko were no longer at the required level. But, just like at club level, he struggled to fill the shoes he was asked to.
Despite his shortcomings, he’s still a viable option for Deschamps to consider alongside Kanté. Statistically, his pass volume and quality only raises more questions, rather than answering any – he manages only 35 passes per game with an accuracy of 84%, and only 2.75 of those 35 passes were progressive, yet he also managed 4.71 carries per game.
He has also failed to impress defensively compared to his competition, averaging 22.7 pressures per game, with a success rate of 32.4%, while his tackles and interceptions completed was limited to just 3.59.
But physically he offers more than the dynamic duo of Real Madrid, averaging 2.19 aerial duels won, with a success rate of 62.5%, while blocking 2.06 shots.
In an environment where no suitor is checking all the boxes, Adrien Rabiot may be preferred if Deschamps decides that his experience is the required factor on the field.
Option #2: Eduardo Camavinga
Still only 19 years-old, Camavinga’s late cameos played crucial parts throughout Real Madrid’s Champions League run and, with Casemiro’s departure, he’s on the field more than ever in the Los Blancos jersey.
Managing 52 passes per game with a success rate of 90.4%, there are not many around who treat the ball with such care. Better still, that care doesn’t stop him taking risks, managing 5 progressive carries and 4.5 progressive passes. He also tries a wide range of passes, not afraid to switch play or take risks when necessary, averaging 8 long balls per game. He also averages 5 passes into the final third.
Physically, his tenacity is unmatched. Averaging 25 pressures, with a 25% succession rate, blocking 2 shots and winning 1.7 aerials per game he proves a defensive power.
If not preferred as the main playmaking outlet of his side, he can at least draw some attention away.
Option #3: Aurelien Tchouameni
It’s almost unfair at this point. Tchouameni plays 55.5 passes per game with a success rate of 86.6%. He creates 2 shots per game, plays the ball nearly 5.5 times into the final third, plays 5.5 progressive passes and carries the ball progressively 5 times per game.
Standing at 6 foot 2, he blocks 1.3 shots per game and wins 70% of the aerial duels that he’s contested, 2.5 per game. He holds a tackles plus interceptions won rate of 5.3 per match, pressures the ball 18 times and plays 8 long balls – the definition of hard work.
Holding a high work rate at both ends of the pitch, and his bravery to let it fly from distance, may be the factor that will put him alongside Kanté.
In addition to offering a high skill-set, they are different types of players, who can be used to adapt to various scenarios.
Ousmane Dembele and Kingsley Coman
Pavard’s move to his favoured right-back/centre-back duty, combined with the flexibility that Les Bleus’ midfield rotation presents, effects the right winger decision deeply.
In their final forms, both shapes require a right winger who can play with the security provided by Kanté and his midfield partner, but will be asked to penetrate down the flank that’s already being harassed by Pavard.
Whether in a 3-5-2 or 4-4-2, the duo of Benzema and Griezmann offers unique ways of helping their team play out of pressure. An injection of speed on the right flank may prove useful to a side whose central areas are already packed with players.
That’s where France’s elite wingers come in.
In his words, after “five wasted years”, Ousmane Dembele is finally starting to live up to the hype. Flash-like speed, amazing ball control skills and no weak foot is a combination that few can pass up in the world.
Very similar to Dembele, Kingsley Coman is also an elite dribbler that can cause a threat any time he has space.
Whether as the main strategy, or as an emergency measure, the inclusion of Dembele and Coman may prove crucial.
Honourable Mentions
The players in France’s latest Nations League squad that haven’t got their name called out yet in this article are Jonathan Clauss and Jules Kounde, as well as Chelsea’s new signing Wesley Fofana.
The World Cup is an overwhelming atmosphere, even – or perhaps even more so – for the reigning champions. If the “Curse of the Champion” is indeed true, then Les Bleus’ destiny is already written, doomed to live with the failure that’s waiting for them. Getting knocked out of a group that consists of Denmark, Tunisia and Australia, may end in Deschamps being left unemployed.
But if the curse is non-existent, any scenario that doesn’t see France declared winners can be counted as an underachievement.
Route to the Final
Topping Group D will see France play the runner-up of Group C, which includes Argentina, Mexico, Poland and Saudi Arabia. Following the odds, having Poland instead of Argentina may prove favourable.
If they qualify for the quarter-finals, Les Bleus will face the winner of the clash between Group B’s winner and Group A’s runner-up. Under the same assumption, their opposition will be decided by the nine minutes between England and Qatar/Ecuador/Senegal, making a match-up with England most likely.
If they progress to the semi-finals, their opponent will have to pass through teams such as Croatia, Spain, Germany, Portugal and Brazil, as well as Belgium, Uruguay and Switzerland.
On paper France can get through to the quarter-finals, before having to face a team their own size; in the form of Gareth Southgate’s Three Lions. After that point, it’s left to the rule of football to decide who brings home glory and who doesn’t.
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